Separation of the impacts of climate change and human activity on runoff variations
作者:Zhao, CS (Zhao, Changsen)[ 1,2,3 ] ; Liu, CM (Liu, Changming)[ 4,5 ] ; Dai, XQ (Dai, Xiangqian)[ 6 ] ; Liu, T (Liu, Tao)[ 7 ] ; Duan, Z (Duan, Zhen)[ 8 ] ; Liu, LF (Liu, Lifang)[ 4 ] ; Mitrovic, SM (Mitrovic, Simon M.)[ 9 ]
HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES
卷: 60  期: 2  页: 234-246
DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2013.865029
出版年: FEB 1 2015

摘要
A practical approach to separate the impact of the processes of climate change (CC) and human activities (HA) on streamflow is presented. A non-parametric Mann-Kendall-Sneyers test, combined with moving t test and Yamamoto methods, was used to recognize abrupt change points in the runoff time series to determine a baseline period. A new algorithm to separate CC and HA influence on streamflow was deduced based on the climate elasticity concept. Application to the Chao River, China, shows that CC imposed a positive impact on streamflow in this region (25%, on average), while HA exerted a continuous negative impact of -75% in the period after the 1950s. These results are of great use in understanding the variation of CC and HA impacts under different human development patterns.

通讯作者地址: Zhao, CS (通讯作者)
Beijing Normal Univ, State Key Lab Remote Sensing Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China.
[ 1 ] Beijing Normal Univ, State Key Lab Remote Sensing Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China
[ 2 ] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Remote Sensing Applicat, Beijing, Peoples R China
[ 3 ] Beijing Normal Univ, Sch Geog, Beijing Key Lab Remote Sensing Environm & Digital, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China
[ 4 ] Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Water Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China
[ 5 ] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing, Peoples R China
[ 6 ] Minist Water Resources, Res Dev Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China
[ 7 ] Binzhou Survey Bur Hydrol & Water Resources, Binzhou, Peoples R China
[ 8 ] Taian Survey Bur Hydrol & Water Resources, Tai An, Shandong, Peoples R China
[ 9 ] Univ Technol Sydney, Sch Environm, Ctr Environm Sustainabil, Sydney, NSW 2007, Australia