Surface water areas significantly impacted 2014 dengue outbreaks in Guangzhou, China

作者:Tian, HY (Tian, Huaiyu)[ 1 ] ; Huang, SQ (Huang, Shanqian)[ 1 ] ; Zhou, S (Zhou, Sen)[ 2,3 ] ; Bi, P (Bi, Peng)[ 4 ] ; Yang, ZC (Yang, Zhicong)[ 5 ] ; Li, XJ (Li, Xiujun)[ 6 ] ; Chen, LF (Chen, Lifan)[ 1 ] ; Cazelles, B (Cazelles, Bernard)[ 7,8 ] ; Yang, J (Yang, Jing)[ 1 ] ; Luo, L (Luo, Lei)[ 5 ] ; Jing, QL (Jing, Qinlong)[ 5 ] ; Yuan, WP (Yuan, Wenping)[ 9 ] ; Pei, Y (Pei, Yao)[ 2 ] ; Sun, Z (Sun, Zhe)[ 2 ] ; Yue, TX (Yue, Tianxiang)[ 10 ] ; Kwan, MP (Kwan, Mei-Po)[ 11 ] ; Liu, QY (Liu, Qiyong)[ 12 ] ; Wang, M (Wang, Ming)[ 5 ] ; Tong, SL (Tong, Shilu)[ 13,14 ] ; Brownstein, JS (Brownstein, John S.)[ 3 ] ; Xu, B (Xu, Bing)[ 1,2,15 ] 

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH

卷: 150  页: 299-305

DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2016.05.039

出版年: OCT 2016

摘要

Dengue transmission in urban areas is strongly influenced by a range of biological and environmental factors, yet the key drivers still need further exploration. To better understand mechanisms of environment mosquito urban dengue transmission, we propose an empirical model parameterized and cross-validated from a unique dataset including viral gene sequences, vector dynamics and human dengue cases in Guangzhou, China, together with a 36-year urban environmental change maps investigated by spatiotemporal satellite image fusion. The dengue epidemics in Guangzhou are highly episodic and were not associated with annual rainfall over time. Our results indicate that urban environmental changes, especially variations in surface area covered by water in urban areas, can substantially alter the virus population and dengue transmission. The recent severe dengue outbreaks in Guangzhou may be due to the surge in an artificial lake construction, which could increase infection force between vector (mainly Aedes albopictus) and host when urban water area significantly increased. Impacts of urban environmental change on dengue dynamics may not have been thoroughly investigated in the past studies and more work needs to be done to better understand the consequences of urbanization processes in our changing world. (C) 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc.

通讯作者地址: Xu, B (通讯作者)

Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Global Change & Earth Syst Sci, State Key Lab Remote Sensing Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China.

通讯作者地址: Xu, B (通讯作者)

Tsinghua Univ, Ctr Earth Syst Sci, Minist Educ, Key Lab Earth Syst Modelling, Beijing, Peoples R China.

通讯作者地址: Brownstein, JS (通讯作者)

Harvard Med Sch, Dept Pediat, Boston, MA 02115 USA.

通讯作者地址: Yang, ZC (通讯作者)

Guangzhou Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China.

通讯作者地址: Xu, B (通讯作者)

Univ Utah, Dept Geog, Salt Lake City, UT 84112 USA.

地址:

[ 1 ] Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Global Change & Earth Syst Sci, State Key Lab Remote Sensing Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China

[ 2 ] Tsinghua Univ, Ctr Earth Syst Sci, Minist Educ, Key Lab Earth Syst Modelling, Beijing, Peoples R China

[ 3 ] Harvard Med Sch, Dept Pediat, Boston, MA 02115 USA

[ 4 ] Univ Adelaide, Discipline Publ Hlth, Adelaide, SA, Australia

[ 5 ] Guangzhou Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China

[ 6 ] Shandong Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Jinan, Peoples R China

[ 7 ] UPMC, UMI IRD 209, UMMISCO, F-93142 Bondy, France

[ 8 ] ENS, IBENS UMR 8197, Ecoevolutionary Math, F-75230 Paris 05, France

[ 9 ] Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Global Change & Earth Syst Sci, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Beijing, Peoples R China

[ 10 ] Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing, Peoples R China

[ 11 ] Univ Illinois, Dept Geog & Geog Informat Sci, Champaign, IL 61820 USA

[ 12 ] Chinese Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Natl Inst Communicable Dis Control & Prevent, State Key Lab Infect Dis Prevent & Control, Beijing, Peoples R China

[ 13 ] Queensland Univ Technol, Sch Publ Hlth, Brisbane, Qld 4059, Australia

[ 14 ] Queensland Univ Technol, Inst Hlth & Biomed Innovat, Brisbane, Qld 4059, Australia

[ 15 ] Univ Utah, Dept Geog, Salt Lake City, UT 84112 USA