Identification of weather variables sensitive to dysentery in disease-affected county of China

作者:Liu, JN (Liu, Jianing)[ 1 ] ; Wu, XX (Wu, Xiaoxu)[ 1 ] ; Li, CL (Li, Chenlu)[ 1 ] ; Xu, B (Xu, Bing)[ 1,2 ] ; Hu, LJ (Hu, Luojia)[ 1 ] ; Chen, J (Chen, Jin)[ 3 ] ; Dai, S (Dai, Shuang)[ 2 ]

SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT

卷: 575  页: 956-962

DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.09.153

出版年: JAN 1 2017

摘要

Climate change mainly refers to long-term change in weather variables, and it has significant impact on sustainability and spread of infectious diseases. Among three leading infectious diseases in China, dysentery is exclusively sensitive to climate change. Previous researches on weather variables and dysentery mainly focus on determining correlation between dysentery incidence and weather variables. However, the contribution of each variable to dysentery incidence has been rarely clarified. Therefore, we chose a typical county in epidemic of dysentery as the study area. Based on data of dysentery incidence, weather variables (monthly mean temperature, precipitation, wind speed, relative humidity, absolute humidity, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature) and lagged analysis, we used principal component analysis (PCA) and classification and regression trees (CART) to examine the relationships between the incidence of dysentery and weather variables. Principal component analysis showed that temperature, precipitation, and humidity played a key role in determining transmission of dysentery. We further selected weather variables including minimum temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity based on results of PCA, and used CART to clarify contributions of these three weather variables to dysentery incidence. We found when minimum temperature was at a high level, the high incidence of dysentery occurred if relative humidity or precipitation was at a high level. We compared our results with other studies on dysentery incidence and meteorological factors in areas both in China and abroad, and good agreement has been achieved. Yet, some differences remain for three reasons: not identifying all key weather variables, climate condition difference caused by local factors, and human factors that also affect dysentery incidence. This study hopes to shed light on potential early warnings for dysentery transmission as climate change occurs, and provide a theoretical basis for the control and prevention of dysentery. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

通讯作者地址: Wu, XX (通讯作者)

Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Global Change & Earth Syst Sci, 19 Xinjiekouwai St, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China.

地址:

[ 1 ] Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Global Change & Earth Syst Sci, State Key Lab Remote Sensing Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China

[ 2 ] Tsinghua Univ, Ctr Earth Syst Sci, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China

[ 3 ] Beijing Normal Univ, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China