Interannual cycles of Hantaan virus outbreaks at the human-animal interface in Central China are controlled by temperature and rainfall

作者:Tian, HY (Tian, Huaiyu)[ 1 ] ; Yu, PB (Yu, Pengbo)[ 2 ] ; Cazelles, B (Cazelles, Bernard)[ 3,4,5 ] ; Xu, L (Xu, Lei)[ 6,7 ] ; Tan, H (Tan, Hua)[ 8 ] ; Yang, J (Yang, Jing)[ 1 ] ; Huang, SQ (Huang, Shanqian)[ 1 ] ; Xu, B (Xu, Bo)[ 9 ] ; Cai, J (Cai, Jun)[ 9 ] ; Ma, CF (Ma, Chaofeng)[ 10 ] ...

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

卷: 114  期: 30  页: 8041-8046

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1701777114

出版年: JUL 25 2017

摘要

Hantavirus, a rodent-borne zoonotic pathogen, has a global distribution with 200,000 human infections diagnosed annually. In recent decades, repeated outbreaks of hantavirus infections have been reported in Eurasia and America. These outbreaks have led to public concern and an interest in understanding the underlying biological mechanisms. Here, we propose a climate-animal-Hantaan virus (HTNV) infection model to address this issue, using a unique dataset spanning a 54-y period (1960-2013). This dataset comes from Central China, a focal point for natural HTNV infection, and includes both field surveillance and an epidemiological record. We reveal that the 8-y cycle of HTNV outbreaks is driven by the confluence of the cyclic dynamics of striped field mouse (Apodemus agrarius) populations and climate variability, at both seasonal and interannual cycles. Two climatic variables play key roles in the ecology of the HTNV system: temperature and rainfall. These variables account for the dynamics in the host reservoir system and markedly affect both the rate of transmission and the potential risk of outbreaks. Our results suggest that outbreaks of HTNV infection occur only when climatic conditions are favorable for both rodent population growth and virus transmission. These findings improve our understanding of how climate drives the periodic reemergence of zoonotic disease outbreaks over long timescales.

通讯作者地址: Xu, B (通讯作者)

Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Global Change & Earth Syst Sci, State Key Lab Remote Sensing Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China.

通讯作者地址: Wang, JJ (通讯作者)

Shaanxi Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Xian 710054, Shaanxi, Peoples R China.

通讯作者地址: Stenseth, NC (通讯作者)

Univ Oslo, Dept Biosci, Ctr Ecol & Evolutionary Synth, N-0316 Oslo, Norway.

通讯作者地址: Xu, B (通讯作者)

Tsinghua Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Key Lab Earth Syst Modelling, Minist Educ, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China.

地址:

[ 1 ] Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Global Change & Earth Syst Sci, State Key Lab Remote Sensing Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China

[ 2 ] Shaanxi Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Xian 710054, Shaanxi, Peoples R China

[ 3 ] Ecole Normale Super, UMR 8197, Ecoevolutionary Math, Inst Biol, F-75230 Paris 05, France

[ 4 ] Inst Rech Dev, Unite Mixte Int 209, Math & Computat Modeling Complex Syst, F-93142 Bondy, France

[ 5 ] Univ Paris 06, F-93142 Bondy, France

[ 6 ] Chinese Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Natl Inst Communicable Dis Control & Prevent, State Key Lab Infect Dis Prevent & Control, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China

[ 7 ] Univ Oslo, Dept Biosci, Ctr Ecol & Evolutionary Synth, N-0316 Oslo, Norway

[ 8 ] Wake Forest Sch Med, Dept Radiol, Ctr Bioinformat & Syst Biol, Winston Salem, NC 27157 USA

[ 9 ] Tsinghua Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Key Lab Earth Syst Modelling, Minist Educ, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China

[ 10 ] Xian Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Xian 710054, Shaanxi, Peoples R China

[ 11 ] Hu Cty Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Xian 710302, Shaanxi, Peoples R China

[ 12 ] Finnish Meteorol Inst, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland

[ 13 ] Shanghai Jiao Tong Univ, Shanghai Childrens Med Ctr, Shanghai 200127, Peoples R China

[ 14 ] Anhui Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Hefei 230032, Anhui, Peoples R China

[ 15 ] Anhui Med Univ, Inst Environm & Populat Hlth, Hefei 230032, Anhui, Peoples R China

[ 16 ] Queensland Univ Technol, Sch Publ Hlth & Social Work, Kelvin Grove, Qld 4059, Australia