Increasing airline travel may facilitate co-circulation of multiple dengue virus serotypes in Asia

作者:Tian, HY (Tian, Huaiyu)[ 1 ] ; Sun, Z (Sun, Zhe)[ 2 ] ; Faria, NR (Faria, Nuno Rodrigues)[ 3 ] ; Yang, J (Yang, Jing)[ 1 ] ; Cazelles, B (Cazelles, Bernard)[ 4,5 ] ; Huang, SQ (Huang, Shanqian)[ 1,3 ] ; Xu, B (Xu, Bo)[ 2 ] ; Yang, QQ (Yang, Qiqi)[ 1 ] ; Pybus, OG (Pybus, Oliver G.)[ 3 ] ; Xu, B (Xu, Bing)[ 1,2 ]

PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES

卷: 11  期: 8

文献号: e0005694

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005694

出版年: AUG 2017

摘要

The incidence of dengue has grown dramatically in recent decades worldwide, especially in Southeast Asia and the Americas with substantial transmission in 2014-2015. Yet the mechanisms underlying the spatio-temporal circulation of dengue virus (DENV) serotypes at large geographical scales remain elusive. Here we investigate the co-circulation in Asia of DENV serotypes 1-3 from 1956 to 2015, using a statistical framework that jointly estimates migration history and quantifies potential predictors of viral spatial diffusion, including socioeconomic, air transportation and maritime mobility data. We find that the spread of DENV-1, -2 and -3 lineages in Asia is significantly associated with air traffic. Our analyses suggest the network centrality of air traffic hubs such as Thailand and India contribute to seeding dengue epidemics, whilst China, Cambodia, Indonesia, and Singapore may establish viral diffusion links with multiple countries in Asia. Phylogeographic reconstructions help to explain how growing air transportation networks could influence the dynamics of DENV circulation.

通讯作者地址: Xu, B (通讯作者)

Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Global Change & Earth Syst Sci, State Key Lab Remote Sensing Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China.

通讯作者地址: Xu, B (通讯作者)

Tsinghua Univ, Minist Educ, Key Lab Earth Syst Modeling, Dept Earth Syst Sci,Sch Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China.

通讯作者地址: Pybus, OG (通讯作者)

Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, Oxford, England.

地址:

[ 1 ] Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Global Change & Earth Syst Sci, State Key Lab Remote Sensing Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China

[ 2 ] Tsinghua Univ, Minist Educ, Key Lab Earth Syst Modeling, Dept Earth Syst Sci,Sch Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China

[ 3 ] Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, Oxford, England

[ 4 ] UPMC ENS, Ecol & Evolut, UMR 7625, Paris, France

[ 5 ] UMMISCO UMI 209 IRD UPMC, Bondy, France