Urbanization prolongs hantavirus epidemics in cities

作者:Tian, HY (Tian, Huaiyu)[ 1 ] ; Hu, SX (Hu, Shixiong)[ 2 ] ; Cazelles, B (Cazelles, Bernard)[ 3,4,5 ] ; Chowell, G (Chowell, Gerardo)[ 6 ] ; Gao, LD (Gao, Lidong)[ 2 ] ; Laine, M (Laine, Marko)[ 7 ] ; Li, YP (Li, Yapin)[ 8 ] ; Yang, HS (Yang, Huisuo)[ 8 ] ; Li, YD (Li, Yidan)[ 1 ] ; Yang, QQ (Yang, Qiqi)[ 1 ] ; Tong, X (Tong, Xin)[ 1,9 ] ; Huang, R (Huang, Ru)[ 9 ] ; Bjornstad, ON (Bjornstad, Otter N.)[ 10,11 ] ; Xiao, H (Xiao, Hong)[ 9 ] ; Stenseth, NC (Stenseth, Nils Chr.)[ 12 ] 

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

卷: 115  期: 18  页: 4707-4712

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1712767115

出版年: MAY 1 2018

文献类型:Article

摘要

Urbanization and rural-urban migration are two factors driving global patterns of disease and mortality. There is significant concern about their potential impact on disease burden and the effectiveness of current control approaches. Few attempts have been made to increase our understanding of the relationship between urbanization and disease dynamics, although it is generally believed that urban living has contributed to reductions in communicable disease burden in industrialized countries. To investigate this relationship, we carried out spatiotemporal analyses using a 48-year-long dataset of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome incidence (HFRS; mainly caused by two serotypes of hantavirus in China: Hantaan virus and Seoul virus) and population movements in an important endemic area of south China during the period 1963-2010. Our findings indicate that epidemics coincide with urbanization, geographic expansion, and migrant movement over time. We found a biphasic inverted U-shaped relationship between HFRS incidence and urbanization, with various endemic turning points associated with economic growth rates in cities. Our results revealed the interrelatedness of urbanization, migration, and hantavirus epidemiology, potentially explaining why urbanizing cities with high economic growth exhibit extended epidemics. Our results also highlight contrasting effects of urbanization on zoonotic disease outbreaks during periods of economic development in China.

通讯作者地址: Tian, HY (通讯作者)

Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Global Change & Earth Syst Sci, State Key Lab Remote Sensing Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China.

通讯作者地址: Gao, LD (通讯作者)

Hunan Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Changsha 410005, Hunan, Peoples R China.

通讯作者地址: Xiao, H (通讯作者)

Hunan Normal Univ, Coll Resources & Environm Sci, Changsha 410081, Hunan, Peoples R China.

通讯作者地址: Stenseth, NC (通讯作者)

Univ Oslo, Dept Biosci, CEES, N-0316 Oslo, Norway.

地址:

[ 1 ] Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Global Change & Earth Syst Sci, State Key Lab Remote Sensing Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China

[ 2 ] Hunan Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Changsha 410005, Hunan, Peoples R China

[ 3 ] Ecole Normale Super, Inst Biol, Unite Mixte Rech 8197, Ecoevolutionary Math, F-75230 Paris 05, France

[ 4 ] Inst Rech Dev, Unite Mixte Int Math & Computat Modeling Complex, F-93142 Bondy, France

[ 5 ] Univ Paris 06, F-93142 Bondy, France

[ 6 ] Georgia State Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Atlanta, GA 30302 USA

[ 7 ] Finnish Meteorol Inst, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland

[ 8 ] Ctr Dis Control & Prevent Beijing Mil Reg, Beijing 100042, Peoples R China

[ 9 ] Hunan Normal Univ, Coll Resources & Environm Sci, Changsha 410081, Hunan, Peoples R China

[ 10 ] Penn State Univ, Dept Biol, Ctr Infect Dis Dynam, University Pk, PA 16802 USA

[ 11 ] Penn State Univ, Coll Agr Sci, Dept Entomol, University Pk, PA 16802 USA

[ 12 ] Univ Oslo, Dept Biosci, CEES, N-0316 Oslo, Norway